NDIS Reform: The Data and the Debate
Click on a button below to highlight a specific roadmap and learn more about its arguments.
Heads up: Figures shown are a best‑effort synthesis from publicly available sources and may not be 100% accurate. Use for general information only.
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The NDIS Numbers: A Visual Breakdown (FY2021-2025)
The Crossroads: ‘Thriving Kids’ – For or Against?
✔ Support the Change
Thesis: The data show outsized growth driven by young entrants and autism diagnoses; shifting mild–moderate needs to mainstream, earlier supports can stabilise growth while preserving NDIS intensity for complex, permanent disability.
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Early help, closer to home: The new model will provide services via GPs, child health, early learning, and schools, offering support where families live and learn.
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Preserving the NDIS for those who need it most: This reform aims to ensure NDIS capacity and funding remain for participants with the highest support needs as the scheme passes 739,000 participants.
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Growth is already moderating: Reform efforts are already working, with cost growth falling to 10.8% and intra-plan inflation decreasing from 7.6% to 5.0% year-on-year.
⚠️ Challenge the Change
Thesis: The numbers show sheer volume and complexity in early childhood; moving supports outside the NDIS could create access gaps if mainstream capacity, funding, and clinical governance aren’t ready by 2026–27.
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High prevalence creates a huge task: With ~11% of 5–7-year-olds in the scheme, mainstream services must be significantly expanded to avoid new waitlists and a service vacuum.
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Risk of developmental backsliding: Autism remains the largest cohort (36% of all participants); displacing them without equivalent therapy access risks developmental setbacks and poor outcomes.
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The need for guardrails: The transition must be staged and well-managed. Current participants must remain on the NDIS until alternate foundational supports are proven to be operational and effective.